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Arch Iran Med. 2019;22(8):429-434.
  Abstract View: 66
  PDF Download: 60

Original Article

Multiple Sclerosis in Tehran: Rising Prevalence alongside Stabilizing Incidence – True Increase or Enhanced Diagnosis?

Farnam Mohebi 1,2, Sharareh Eskandarieh 1, Mohammad Ali Mansournia 3, Bahram Mohajer 1,2, Mohammad Ali Sahraian 1 *

1 MS Research Center, Neuroscience Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Sina Hospital, Tehran University Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
2 Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
*Corresponding Author: Mohammad Ali Sahraian, MD; MS Research Center, Neuroscience Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Sina Hospital, Hassan-Abad Square, Imam Khomeini Ave., Tehran University Medical Sciences, Tehran, 11365-3876, Iran. Tel: +982166706142; Fax: +9821667061 41; Email: msahrai@tums.ac.ir, sahraian1350@yahoo.com Email: sahraian1350@yahoo.com

Abstract

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic and potentially progressive demyelinating disease of the central nervous system. The incidence and prevalence rate of the disease has been increasing globally, especially in females.

Methods: In this cross-sectional population-based study based on Iranian MS Society data (1989-2016), we aimed to present most recent age-standardized incidence and prevalence rate of MS, female to male ratio, mean onset age, and prevalence of positive family history of MS alongside with their time trend via Joinpoint regression analysis in 27 years. Additionally, a linear regression model was used for evaluating the association of onset age with sex and family history in patients.

Results: In 18,061 registered cases: female to male ratio was generally 3.06:1, showing a general decreasing trend. The mean onset age of the disease was 28.50 ± 8.61 with a general increasing trend. 12.52% of the cases had at least a positive any-degree family history of MS, exhibiting a weak increasing trend. The age-standardized incidence and prevalence rate was 1.8 (95% CI: 1.3, 7.2) and 116 (95% CI: 96, 139) per 100000 populations, respectively, both presenting a significant increasing trend, however, incidence rate ended in plateaued and finally decreasing trend. Finally, onset age was predicted to be lower in females and subjects with positive family history of MS.

Conclusion: Tehran is among MS high-risk areas with increasing trends in prevalence and increasing followed by plateaued incidence rates indicating necessity of extra investigations of the underlying reasons and health system preparedness for further health care requirements of MS patients.

Keywords: Age of onset, Epidemiology, Incidence, Multiple sclerosis, Prevalence, Sex ratio
Cite this article as: Mohebi F, Eskandarieh S, Mansournia MA, Mohajer B, Sahraian MA. Multiple sclerosis in Tehran: rising prevalence alongside stabilizing incidence – True increase or enhanced diagnosis? Arch Iran Med. 2019;22(8):429–434.
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Submitted: 04 Mar 2019
Accepted: 15 May 2019
First published online: 01 Aug 2019
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